Contact Luck Leaderboard

Contact Luck compares what a batted ball was expected to be worth with the run value of what actually happened. Summed across a player's eligible batted balls and normalized to Runs / 100, +3.0 means a hitter's realized outcomes were worth roughly three more runs per 100 eligible batted balls than expected. The interval shows the uncertainty around that estimate — Contact Luck describes what happened, retrospectively; it is not a projection of future performance.

Data through Aug. 29, 2026 156 qualified hitters

Riley Greene

107.6 mph · 33°

Actual: Out

Expected RV +1.29

Contact Luck -1.55

Unfavorable

Francisco Lindor

60.4 mph · 26°

Actual: Single

Expected RV -0.25

Contact Luck +0.71

Favorable

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2026 Contact Luck Leaderboard

Ranked players only (156 of 637 players qualify) — see methodology for the qualification rule.

Most favorable realized luck Least favorable outcomes relative to expectation

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong	7.76	28.4	366	133	8.7
2	Tristan Peters	6.57	19.4	295	114	9.9
3	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.71	23.3	408	129	7.4
4	CJ Abrams	5.18	18.8	362	124	7.5
5	Chase Meidroth	4.40	16.1	366	128	7.7
6	Chandler Simpson	4.38	19.4	442	122	6.2
7	Seiya Suzuki	4.25	13.4	316	116	6.8
8	Liam Hicks	4.14	15.4	373	119	6.9
9	Brandon Lowe	3.91	13.1	335	122	8.2
10	Nick Gonzales	3.76	14.7	390	126	6.9
11	Colson Montgomery	3.75	11.1	296	120	9.2
12	Ezequiel Duran	3.66	11.9	326	122	8.4
13	Nolan Arenado	3.36	11.6	344	124	7.3
14	Brooks Lee	3.22	12.6	391	125	7.8
15	Randy Arozarena	3.10	10.9	352	128	8.7
16	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2.98	8.7	292	118	9.1
17	Willson Contreras	2.97	8.9	299	115	9.3
18	José Caballero	2.80	7.5	270	103	8.3
19	Zach Neto	2.65	9.2	346	130	7.7
20	Jake Bauers	2.63	7.4	282	110	8.6
21	Justin Crawford	2.59	7.7	299	117	8.0
22	Elly De La Cruz	2.58	8.3	320	116	8.1
23	Luke Keaschall	2.46	8.8	358	123	7.3
24	TJ Rumfield	2.40	9.3	386	130	7.2
25	Ian Happ	2.38	7.2	304	122	7.8
26	Willi Castro	2.38	7.1	297	110	7.2
27	Kyle Schwarber	2.34	7.0	298	121	8.2
28	Jake McCarthy	2.31	8.5	367	115	7.1
29	Andrew Benintendi	2.24	6.0	269	107	10.0
30	Jordan Walker	2.23	8.4	375	131	7.0
31	Willy Adames	2.19	7.1	322	119	8.0
32	Javier Sanoja	2.11	6.8	320	106	8.5
33	Caleb Durbin	2.10	7.8	373	125	7.4
34	Taylor Walls	2.08	5.1	247	101	8.0
35	Carson Benge	2.07	7.6	369	128	7.9
36	Shohei Ohtani	2.06	7.3	353	124	7.6
37	Luis Arraez	2.01	10.1	504	128	6.2
38	Otto Lopez	1.97	8.9	453	132	6.6
39	Ernie Clement	1.85	8.4	455	133	6.7
40	Brandon Marsh	1.80	6.2	342	125	7.7
41	Yandy Díaz	1.79	7.7	430	128	7.4
42	Andrés Giménez	1.77	5.7	323	118	8.3
43	Travis Bazzana	1.75	4.9	282	100	8.4
44	Sal Stewart	1.58	6.2	396	133	7.5
45	Hunter Goodman	1.50	4.2	277	112	8.7
46	Jackson Chourio	1.43	4.4	306	101	7.8
47	Cedric Mullins	1.38	4.2	308	109	8.3
48	Isaac Paredes	1.37	5.4	396	127	6.3
49	Jung Hoo Lee	1.37	5.8	422	124	7.4
50	Garrett Mitchell	1.36	3.3	246	103	9.7
51	Rafael Devers	1.30	4.8	370	134	7.8
52	Leody Taveras	1.28	3.6	278	108	8.7
53	Michael Harris II	1.24	4.9	394	128	7.4
54	Ben Rice	1.14	3.9	345	127	9.3
55	Luis García Jr.	1.10	4.0	360	124	8.3
56	Corbin Carroll	0.97	3.6	372	132	7.2
57	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.5
58	Jose Altuve	0.92	3.0	325	105	7.9
59	Gabriel Moreno	0.89	2.9	323	105	7.4
60	Andy Pages	0.87	3.4	387	124	7.8
61	Cole Young	0.75	3.0	404	132	7.3
62	Tyler Soderstrom	0.69	2.1	302	106	8.7
63	Bryson Stott	0.68	2.5	367	128	7.2
64	Alex Bregman	0.65	2.8	433	133	8.2
65	Nathan Church	0.61	1.7	284	103	8.8
66	Trea Turner	0.61	2.5	411	129	7.5
67	Spencer Torkelson	0.54	1.6	293	128	9.2
68	Max Muncy	0.53	1.5	290	117	8.5
69	Xavier Edwards	0.52	2.2	428	134	6.2
70	George Springer	0.38	1.2	307	102	7.7
71	Trevor Larnach	0.36	1.0	280	103	7.7
72	Christian Walker	0.32	1.1	352	127	8.5
73	Steven Kwan	0.32	1.2	393	124	7.4
74	Bryan Reynolds	0.32	1.1	362	136	6.6
75	Kody Clemens	0.30	1.0	332	116	8.5
76	Sam Antonacci	0.23	0.7	319	114	7.5
77	Cody Bellinger	0.22	0.7	329	109	9.4
78	Daylen Lile	0.19	0.8	411	134	7.1
79	Jonathan Aranda	0.13	0.5	370	129	7.8
80	Nolan Schanuel	0.12	0.4	338	106	7.0
81	Lane Thomas	0.10	0.2	230	100	7.9
82	Mauricio Dubón	0.09	0.4	416	129	6.6
83	Michael Massey	0.09	0.2	284	102	9.0
84	Kevin McGonigle	0.05	0.2	420	131	7.0
85	Brice Turang	0.03	0.1	348	124	7.7
86	Freddie Freeman	0.03	0.1	413	129	7.1
87	Chase DeLauter	0.01	0.1	353	111	8.3
88	Masyn Winn	-0.03	-0.1	330	117	8.0
89	Isaac Collins	-0.05	-0.2	289	115	8.2
90	Kazuma Okamoto	-0.07	-0.2	321	125	7.7
91	Ozzie Albies	-0.09	-0.4	446	136	6.6
92	Daulton Varsho	-0.11	-0.3	321	112	7.8
93	Junior Caminero	-0.13	-0.5	406	133	5.8
94	Alec Burleson	-0.14	-0.6	422	133	7.5
95	Brayan Rocchio	-0.15	-0.6	386	130	6.7
96	Michael Busch	-0.17	-0.6	374	132	8.0
97	Dillon Dingler	-0.27	-1.0	356	121	9.2
98	Dominic Canzone	-0.39	-1.1	283	111	8.1
99	Matt Olson	-0.48	-1.8	377	136	7.1
100	Jac Caglianone	-0.56	-1.8	322	120	8.2
101	Yordan Alvarez	-0.58	-2.2	381	131	8.5
102	Wilyer Abreu	-0.66	-2.6	394	131	7.7
103	Kyle Tucker	-0.66	-2.4	358	125	6.7
104	Josh Naylor	-0.69	-2.9	422	126	7.0
105	Jakob Marsee	-0.72	-2.3	323	125	7.9
106	Colt Keith	-0.73	-2.0	275	115	9.7
107	Jake Burger	-0.85	-2.8	329	126	8.5
108	Kyle Karros	-0.85	-2.2	263	107	8.3
109	Evan Carter	-0.94	-2.3	242	105	10.2
110	Pete Alonso	-0.96	-3.6	371	131	7.7
111	Joc Pederson	-1.10	-2.8	254	109	9.4
112	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.12	-4.6	413	133	7.2
113	Troy Johnston	-1.13	-3.2	288	105	7.6
114	Gavin Sheets	-1.18	-3.2	274	114	7.7
115	Josh Bell	-1.23	-4.6	371	128	7.8
116	Jeff McNeil	-1.24	-4.2	340	113	7.5
117	Mike Yastrzemski	-1.31	-2.8	217	102	10.3
118	Iván Herrera	-1.40	-5.5	395	135	6.0
119	Nico Hoerner	-1.41	-6.7	478	133	6.5
120	Bo Bichette	-1.43	-6.1	430	133	7.7
121	Gunnar Henderson	-1.44	-5.7	400	134	7.7
122	Brett Baty	-1.56	-4.0	256	111	7.7
123	Ildemaro Vargas	-1.61	-5.8	357	113	7.7
124	Nasim Nuñez	-1.71	-5.1	301	120	8.0
125	Bryce Harper	-1.79	-6.4	360	132	8.6
126	Jacob Young	-1.82	-5.5	300	111	8.3
127	Jarren Duran	-1.84	-6.2	339	121	8.4
128	Lawrence Butler	-1.87	-4.9	261	112	8.9
129	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.95	-8.1	414	132	7.1
130	JJ Bleday	-2.00	-5.7	284	105	9.6
131	Marcus Semien	-2.17	-6.8	313	114	8.7
132	Matt McLain	-2.25	-5.7	254	103	9.4
133	Austin Riley	-2.32	-7.2	310	131	8.0
134	Dansby Swanson	-2.34	-6.8	292	112	7.7
135	José Ramírez	-2.42	-7.7	320	100	7.4
136	Jo Adell	-2.49	-9.2	371	128	7.6
137	Drake Baldwin	-2.55	-8.6	338	112	8.8
138	Mike Trout	-2.55	-7.3	285	114	9.6
139	Zach McKinstry	-2.55	-6.7	261	103	8.3
140	Taylor Ward	-2.74	-9.5	347	124	7.1
141	Julio Rodríguez	-2.83	-10.5	370	124	6.7
142	Miguel Vargas	-2.84	-11.1	390	130	7.9
143	William Contreras	-2.96	-12.1	408	124	6.3
144	Trent Grisham	-3.05	-9.8	321	111	9.3
145	Ketel Marte	-3.39	-13.3	393	117	6.5
146	Alec Bohm	-3.43	-13.8	404	128	6.7
147	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-3.46	-13.6	392	121	7.1
148	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.49	-10.4	299	116	7.8
149	Jackson Merrill	-3.50	-13.2	377	129	7.7
150	Cam Smith	-3.62	-11.3	312	122	9.2
151	JJ Wetherholt	-3.62	-14.7	406	129	7.2
152	Manny Machado	-3.96	-14.8	373	131	7.3
153	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	10.0
154	Brandon Nimmo	-3.98	-15.1	379	129	9.6
155	Xander Bogaerts	-4.78	-16.6	347	124	7.0
156	Salvador Perez	-5.99	-23.1	385	127	6.6

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Salvador Perez	-5.99	-23.1	385	127	6.6
2	Xander Bogaerts	-4.78	-16.6	347	124	7.0
3	Brandon Nimmo	-3.98	-15.1	379	129	9.6
4	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	10.0
5	Manny Machado	-3.96	-14.8	373	131	7.3
6	JJ Wetherholt	-3.62	-14.7	406	129	7.2
7	Cam Smith	-3.62	-11.3	312	122	9.2
8	Jackson Merrill	-3.50	-13.2	377	129	7.7
9	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.49	-10.4	299	116	7.8
10	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-3.46	-13.6	392	121	7.1
11	Alec Bohm	-3.43	-13.8	404	128	6.7
12	Ketel Marte	-3.39	-13.3	393	117	6.5
13	Trent Grisham	-3.05	-9.8	321	111	9.3
14	William Contreras	-2.96	-12.1	408	124	6.3
15	Miguel Vargas	-2.84	-11.1	390	130	7.9
16	Julio Rodríguez	-2.83	-10.5	370	124	6.7
17	Taylor Ward	-2.74	-9.5	347	124	7.1
18	Zach McKinstry	-2.55	-6.7	261	103	8.3
19	Mike Trout	-2.55	-7.3	285	114	9.6
20	Drake Baldwin	-2.55	-8.6	338	112	8.8
21	Jo Adell	-2.49	-9.2	371	128	7.6
22	José Ramírez	-2.42	-7.7	320	100	7.4
23	Dansby Swanson	-2.34	-6.8	292	112	7.7
24	Austin Riley	-2.32	-7.2	310	131	8.0
25	Matt McLain	-2.25	-5.7	254	103	9.4
26	Marcus Semien	-2.17	-6.8	313	114	8.7
27	JJ Bleday	-2.00	-5.7	284	105	9.6
28	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.95	-8.1	414	132	7.1
29	Lawrence Butler	-1.87	-4.9	261	112	8.9
30	Jarren Duran	-1.84	-6.2	339	121	8.4
31	Jacob Young	-1.82	-5.5	300	111	8.3
32	Bryce Harper	-1.79	-6.4	360	132	8.6
33	Nasim Nuñez	-1.71	-5.1	301	120	8.0
34	Ildemaro Vargas	-1.61	-5.8	357	113	7.7
35	Brett Baty	-1.56	-4.0	256	111	7.7
36	Gunnar Henderson	-1.44	-5.7	400	134	7.7
37	Bo Bichette	-1.43	-6.1	430	133	7.7
38	Nico Hoerner	-1.41	-6.7	478	133	6.5
39	Iván Herrera	-1.40	-5.5	395	135	6.0
40	Mike Yastrzemski	-1.31	-2.8	217	102	10.3
41	Jeff McNeil	-1.24	-4.2	340	113	7.5
42	Josh Bell	-1.23	-4.6	371	128	7.8
43	Gavin Sheets	-1.18	-3.2	274	114	7.7
44	Troy Johnston	-1.13	-3.2	288	105	7.6
45	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.12	-4.6	413	133	7.2
46	Joc Pederson	-1.10	-2.8	254	109	9.4
47	Pete Alonso	-0.96	-3.6	371	131	7.7
48	Evan Carter	-0.94	-2.3	242	105	10.2
49	Kyle Karros	-0.85	-2.2	263	107	8.3
50	Jake Burger	-0.85	-2.8	329	126	8.5
51	Colt Keith	-0.73	-2.0	275	115	9.7
52	Jakob Marsee	-0.72	-2.3	323	125	7.9
53	Josh Naylor	-0.69	-2.9	422	126	7.0
54	Kyle Tucker	-0.66	-2.4	358	125	6.7
55	Wilyer Abreu	-0.66	-2.6	394	131	7.7
56	Yordan Alvarez	-0.58	-2.2	381	131	8.5
57	Jac Caglianone	-0.56	-1.8	322	120	8.2
58	Matt Olson	-0.48	-1.8	377	136	7.1
59	Dominic Canzone	-0.39	-1.1	283	111	8.1
60	Dillon Dingler	-0.27	-1.0	356	121	9.2
61	Michael Busch	-0.17	-0.6	374	132	8.0
62	Brayan Rocchio	-0.15	-0.6	386	130	6.7
63	Alec Burleson	-0.14	-0.6	422	133	7.5
64	Junior Caminero	-0.13	-0.5	406	133	5.8
65	Daulton Varsho	-0.11	-0.3	321	112	7.8
66	Ozzie Albies	-0.09	-0.4	446	136	6.6
67	Kazuma Okamoto	-0.07	-0.2	321	125	7.7
68	Isaac Collins	-0.05	-0.2	289	115	8.2
69	Masyn Winn	-0.03	-0.1	330	117	8.0
70	Chase DeLauter	0.01	0.1	353	111	8.3
71	Freddie Freeman	0.03	0.1	413	129	7.1
72	Brice Turang	0.03	0.1	348	124	7.7
73	Kevin McGonigle	0.05	0.2	420	131	7.0
74	Michael Massey	0.09	0.2	284	102	9.0
75	Mauricio Dubón	0.09	0.4	416	129	6.6
76	Lane Thomas	0.10	0.2	230	100	7.9
77	Nolan Schanuel	0.12	0.4	338	106	7.0
78	Jonathan Aranda	0.13	0.5	370	129	7.8
79	Daylen Lile	0.19	0.8	411	134	7.1
80	Cody Bellinger	0.22	0.7	329	109	9.4
81	Sam Antonacci	0.23	0.7	319	114	7.5
82	Kody Clemens	0.30	1.0	332	116	8.5
83	Bryan Reynolds	0.32	1.1	362	136	6.6
84	Steven Kwan	0.32	1.2	393	124	7.4
85	Christian Walker	0.32	1.1	352	127	8.5
86	Trevor Larnach	0.36	1.0	280	103	7.7
87	George Springer	0.38	1.2	307	102	7.7
88	Xavier Edwards	0.52	2.2	428	134	6.2
89	Max Muncy	0.53	1.5	290	117	8.5
90	Spencer Torkelson	0.54	1.6	293	128	9.2
91	Trea Turner	0.61	2.5	411	129	7.5
92	Nathan Church	0.61	1.7	284	103	8.8
93	Alex Bregman	0.65	2.8	433	133	8.2
94	Bryson Stott	0.68	2.5	367	128	7.2
95	Tyler Soderstrom	0.69	2.1	302	106	8.7
96	Cole Young	0.75	3.0	404	132	7.3
97	Andy Pages	0.87	3.4	387	124	7.8
98	Gabriel Moreno	0.89	2.9	323	105	7.4
99	Jose Altuve	0.92	3.0	325	105	7.9
100	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.5
101	Corbin Carroll	0.97	3.6	372	132	7.2
102	Luis García Jr.	1.10	4.0	360	124	8.3
103	Ben Rice	1.14	3.9	345	127	9.3
104	Michael Harris II	1.24	4.9	394	128	7.4
105	Leody Taveras	1.28	3.6	278	108	8.7
106	Rafael Devers	1.30	4.8	370	134	7.8
107	Garrett Mitchell	1.36	3.3	246	103	9.7
108	Jung Hoo Lee	1.37	5.8	422	124	7.4
109	Isaac Paredes	1.37	5.4	396	127	6.3
110	Cedric Mullins	1.38	4.2	308	109	8.3
111	Jackson Chourio	1.43	4.4	306	101	7.8
112	Hunter Goodman	1.50	4.2	277	112	8.7
113	Sal Stewart	1.58	6.2	396	133	7.5
114	Travis Bazzana	1.75	4.9	282	100	8.4
115	Andrés Giménez	1.77	5.7	323	118	8.3
116	Yandy Díaz	1.79	7.7	430	128	7.4
117	Brandon Marsh	1.80	6.2	342	125	7.7
118	Ernie Clement	1.85	8.4	455	133	6.7
119	Otto Lopez	1.97	8.9	453	132	6.6
120	Luis Arraez	2.01	10.1	504	128	6.2
121	Shohei Ohtani	2.06	7.3	353	124	7.6
122	Carson Benge	2.07	7.6	369	128	7.9
123	Taylor Walls	2.08	5.1	247	101	8.0
124	Caleb Durbin	2.10	7.8	373	125	7.4
125	Javier Sanoja	2.11	6.8	320	106	8.5
126	Willy Adames	2.19	7.1	322	119	8.0
127	Jordan Walker	2.23	8.4	375	131	7.0
128	Andrew Benintendi	2.24	6.0	269	107	10.0
129	Jake McCarthy	2.31	8.5	367	115	7.1
130	Kyle Schwarber	2.34	7.0	298	121	8.2
131	Willi Castro	2.38	7.1	297	110	7.2
132	Ian Happ	2.38	7.2	304	122	7.8
133	TJ Rumfield	2.40	9.3	386	130	7.2
134	Luke Keaschall	2.46	8.8	358	123	7.3
135	Elly De La Cruz	2.58	8.3	320	116	8.1
136	Justin Crawford	2.59	7.7	299	117	8.0
137	Jake Bauers	2.63	7.4	282	110	8.6
138	Zach Neto	2.65	9.2	346	130	7.7
139	José Caballero	2.80	7.5	270	103	8.3
140	Willson Contreras	2.97	8.9	299	115	9.3
141	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2.98	8.7	292	118	9.1
142	Randy Arozarena	3.10	10.9	352	128	8.7
143	Brooks Lee	3.22	12.6	391	125	7.8
144	Nolan Arenado	3.36	11.6	344	124	7.3
145	Ezequiel Duran	3.66	11.9	326	122	8.4
146	Colson Montgomery	3.75	11.1	296	120	9.2
147	Nick Gonzales	3.76	14.7	390	126	6.9
148	Brandon Lowe	3.91	13.1	335	122	8.2
149	Liam Hicks	4.14	15.4	373	119	6.9
150	Seiya Suzuki	4.25	13.4	316	116	6.8
151	Chandler Simpson	4.38	19.4	442	122	6.2
152	Chase Meidroth	4.40	16.1	366	128	7.7
153	CJ Abrams	5.18	18.8	362	124	7.5
154	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.71	23.3	408	129	7.4
155	Tristan Peters	6.57	19.4	295	114	9.9
156	Pete Crow-Armstrong	7.76	28.4	366	133	8.7

Columns can be re-sorted for exploration, but a re-sorted table is always labeled "Sorted view" and is never presented as an alternative official ranking. The Rank column always shows the stored, frozen official rank — click it to return to that order.