Contact Luck Leaderboard

Contact Luck compares what a batted ball was expected to be worth with the run value of what actually happened. Summed across a player's eligible batted balls and normalized to Runs / 100, +3.0 means a hitter's realized outcomes were worth roughly three more runs per 100 eligible batted balls than expected. The interval shows the uncertainty around that estimate — Contact Luck describes what happened, retrospectively; it is not a projection of future performance.

Data through Aug. 28, 2026 154 qualified hitters

Riley Greene

107.6 mph · 33°

Actual: Out

Expected RV +1.29

Contact Luck -1.55

Unfavorable

Francisco Lindor

60.4 mph · 26°

Actual: Single

Expected RV -0.25

Contact Luck +0.71

Favorable

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2026 Contact Luck Leaderboard

Ranked players only (154 of 637 players qualify) — see methodology for the qualification rule.

Most favorable realized luck Least favorable outcomes relative to expectation

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong	7.60	27.4	360	132	8.4
2	Tristan Peters	6.67	19.6	293	113	9.3
3	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.94	23.7	399	127	7.7
4	CJ Abrams	5.25	18.9	360	123	7.6
5	Chase Meidroth	4.50	16.4	364	127	7.2
6	Chandler Simpson	4.26	18.6	438	121	6.3
7	Seiya Suzuki	4.04	12.6	312	115	7.1
8	Liam Hicks	4.02	14.9	370	118	6.8
9	Colson Montgomery	3.95	11.6	294	119	9.1
10	Nick Gonzales	3.74	14.5	387	125	6.7
11	Nolan Arenado	3.69	12.4	336	122	7.5
12	Ezequiel Duran	3.62	11.7	323	121	8.8
13	Brandon Lowe	3.50	11.7	334	121	8.2
14	Brooks Lee	3.42	13.3	389	124	7.8
15	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.33	9.6	289	117	8.4
16	Randy Arozarena	3.20	11.2	350	127	8.1
17	Willson Contreras	2.85	8.4	296	113	9.3
18	Zach Neto	2.70	9.3	343	129	7.7
19	Jake Bauers	2.63	7.4	282	110	8.8
20	Justin Crawford	2.60	7.7	297	116	8.4
21	TJ Rumfield	2.55	9.7	382	129	7.3
22	Ian Happ	2.49	7.5	302	121	7.9
23	Jordan Walker	2.44	9.1	372	130	7.2
24	José Caballero	2.43	6.4	265	101	8.7
25	Elly De La Cruz	2.42	7.7	319	115	8.4
26	Jake McCarthy	2.40	8.8	364	114	7.4
27	Willi Castro	2.40	7.1	295	109	7.4
28	Luke Keaschall	2.32	8.2	355	122	7.2
29	Willy Adames	2.19	7.1	322	119	8.2
30	Javier Sanoja	2.18	6.9	317	105	8.6
31	Luis Arraez	2.15	10.7	499	127	6.0
32	Kyle Schwarber	2.13	6.3	295	120	8.2
33	Caleb Durbin	2.12	7.9	370	123	7.7
34	Shohei Ohtani	2.07	7.2	350	123	7.6
35	Carson Benge	2.07	7.6	367	127	8.3
36	Ernie Clement	1.98	8.9	452	132	6.5
37	Otto Lopez	1.88	8.5	450	131	6.8
38	Taylor Walls	1.84	4.5	244	100	7.9
39	Brandon Marsh	1.84	6.2	339	124	8.0
40	Andrés Giménez	1.77	5.7	323	118	8.7
41	Travis Bazzana	1.75	4.9	282	100	8.9
42	Hunter Goodman	1.74	4.8	274	111	8.1
43	Yandy Díaz	1.73	7.4	427	127	7.4
44	Jackson Chourio	1.55	4.7	303	100	7.4
45	Sal Stewart	1.54	6.1	393	132	7.7
46	Garrett Mitchell	1.51	3.7	244	102	10.4
47	Jung Hoo Lee	1.48	6.2	415	122	7.7
48	Cedric Mullins	1.44	4.4	305	108	8.3
49	Andrew Benintendi	1.43	3.8	266	106	9.2
50	Isaac Paredes	1.42	5.6	393	126	6.6
51	Corbin Carroll	1.34	4.9	368	130	7.2
52	Rafael Devers	1.32	4.8	363	132	7.8
53	Ben Rice	1.20	4.1	339	125	9.1
54	Leody Taveras	1.17	3.2	275	107	8.9
55	Michael Harris II	1.02	4.0	391	127	7.4
56	Jose Altuve	0.97	3.1	322	104	7.6
57	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.2
58	Kody Clemens	0.92	3.0	330	115	8.1
59	Luis García Jr.	0.91	3.2	355	122	8.5
60	Andy Pages	0.87	3.4	387	124	7.8
61	Christian Walker	0.87	3.0	348	126	8.8
62	Cole Young	0.84	3.4	401	131	7.7
63	Gabriel Moreno	0.82	2.6	320	104	7.7
64	Bryson Stott	0.73	2.7	366	127	6.8
65	Max Muncy	0.69	2.0	287	116	7.8
66	Tyler Soderstrom	0.69	2.1	302	106	8.5
67	Xavier Edwards	0.61	2.6	425	133	6.4
68	Nathan Church	0.55	1.5	281	102	8.0
69	Spencer Torkelson	0.54	1.6	292	127	9.1
70	Trevor Larnach	0.54	1.5	278	102	7.8
71	Trea Turner	0.48	2.0	407	128	7.6
72	Alex Bregman	0.40	1.7	428	132	8.3
73	George Springer	0.31	0.9	304	101	8.0
74	Steven Kwan	0.29	1.1	391	123	7.2
75	Sam Antonacci	0.25	0.8	318	113	7.9
76	Daylen Lile	0.23	0.9	408	133	7.1
77	Bryan Reynolds	0.21	0.8	360	135	6.9
78	Jonathan Aranda	0.21	0.8	366	128	7.5
79	Michael Busch	0.21	0.8	368	131	8.2
80	Nolan Schanuel	0.12	0.4	338	106	6.7
81	Daulton Varsho	0.11	0.4	318	111	7.7
82	Brice Turang	0.09	0.3	347	123	7.6
83	Michael Massey	0.09	0.2	284	102	9.3
84	Mauricio Dubón	0.06	0.2	412	128	6.6
85	Chase DeLauter	0.06	0.2	351	110	8.0
86	Freddie Freeman	0.05	0.2	409	128	7.0
87	Kevin McGonigle	0.03	0.1	418	130	6.6
88	Brayan Rocchio	0.03	0.1	383	129	7.2
89	Masyn Winn	-0.03	-0.1	330	117	7.9
90	Ozzie Albies	-0.03	-0.1	444	135	6.5
91	Kazuma Okamoto	-0.03	-0.1	320	124	7.4
92	Junior Caminero	-0.07	-0.3	403	132	6.0
93	Dominic Canzone	-0.07	-0.2	280	110	7.9
94	Alec Burleson	-0.09	-0.4	420	132	8.1
95	Cody Bellinger	-0.11	-0.4	325	107	9.5
96	Isaac Collins	-0.19	-0.6	286	114	8.4
97	Dillon Dingler	-0.47	-1.7	355	120	8.9
98	Matt Olson	-0.52	-1.9	375	135	7.3
99	Yordan Alvarez	-0.63	-2.4	377	130	8.2
100	Colt Keith	-0.65	-1.8	274	114	9.8
101	Jakob Marsee	-0.69	-2.2	322	124	8.7
102	Kyle Tucker	-0.76	-2.7	355	124	7.3
103	Jac Caglianone	-0.81	-2.6	318	119	8.4
104	Evan Carter	-0.82	-2.0	241	104	10.2
105	Jake Burger	-0.84	-2.7	325	125	8.7
106	Josh Naylor	-0.85	-3.5	418	125	6.9
107	Kyle Karros	-0.85	-2.2	263	107	8.5
108	Pete Alonso	-0.88	-3.2	369	130	8.1
109	Wilyer Abreu	-0.89	-3.5	388	129	7.6
110	Geraldo Perdomo	-0.92	-3.7	406	131	7.2
111	Joc Pederson	-0.98	-2.5	252	108	9.2
112	Mike Yastrzemski	-1.05	-2.2	213	101	10.4
113	Gavin Sheets	-1.10	-3.0	270	113	7.7
114	Iván Herrera	-1.12	-4.4	392	134	6.1
115	Josh Bell	-1.21	-4.5	368	127	8.2
116	Troy Johnston	-1.24	-3.6	287	104	7.7
117	Gunnar Henderson	-1.32	-5.3	397	133	8.2
118	Jeff McNeil	-1.33	-4.5	336	112	7.5
119	Bo Bichette	-1.34	-5.7	427	132	7.6
120	Nasim Nuñez	-1.36	-4.0	298	119	8.0
121	Nico Hoerner	-1.36	-6.4	474	132	6.6
122	Ildemaro Vargas	-1.39	-4.8	349	111	7.3
123	Bryce Harper	-1.69	-6.1	358	131	8.8
124	Jarren Duran	-1.69	-5.7	336	120	8.1
125	Jacob Young	-1.82	-5.5	300	111	7.7
126	Lawrence Butler	-1.95	-5.1	260	111	8.4
127	JJ Bleday	-1.95	-5.5	281	104	10.2
128	Brett Baty	-1.99	-5.1	254	110	7.7
129	Matt McLain	-2.06	-5.2	251	102	9.0
130	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-2.10	-8.6	412	131	7.0
131	Austin Riley	-2.26	-7.0	308	130	8.2
132	Dansby Swanson	-2.34	-6.8	292	112	8.0
133	Jo Adell	-2.34	-8.6	368	127	7.9
134	Marcus Semien	-2.42	-7.5	309	113	8.7
135	Mike Trout	-2.46	-6.9	283	113	9.8
136	Zach McKinstry	-2.51	-6.5	260	102	8.6
137	Drake Baldwin	-2.64	-8.8	334	111	8.8
138	Miguel Vargas	-2.65	-10.3	388	129	8.3
139	Julio Rodríguez	-2.78	-10.3	369	123	6.9
140	Taylor Ward	-2.80	-9.7	346	123	7.1
141	Trent Grisham	-2.81	-8.9	316	109	9.4
142	William Contreras	-3.08	-12.5	406	123	6.5
143	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-3.22	-12.5	389	120	7.0
144	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.25	-9.7	297	115	7.7
145	Jackson Merrill	-3.30	-12.3	373	128	7.7
146	Ketel Marte	-3.39	-13.3	393	117	6.5
147	JJ Wetherholt	-3.53	-14.2	402	128	7.5
148	Cam Smith	-3.62	-11.3	312	122	9.2
149	Alec Bohm	-3.67	-14.7	400	127	7.0
150	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	9.7
151	Manny Machado	-4.08	-15.1	369	130	7.4
152	Brandon Nimmo	-4.20	-15.7	375	128	9.2
153	Xander Bogaerts	-4.78	-16.6	347	124	7.1
154	Salvador Perez	-5.90	-22.5	381	126	6.2

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Salvador Perez	-5.90	-22.5	381	126	6.2
2	Xander Bogaerts	-4.78	-16.6	347	124	7.1
3	Brandon Nimmo	-4.20	-15.7	375	128	9.2
4	Manny Machado	-4.08	-15.1	369	130	7.4
5	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	9.7
6	Alec Bohm	-3.67	-14.7	400	127	7.0
7	Cam Smith	-3.62	-11.3	312	122	9.2
8	JJ Wetherholt	-3.53	-14.2	402	128	7.5
9	Ketel Marte	-3.39	-13.3	393	117	6.5
10	Jackson Merrill	-3.30	-12.3	373	128	7.7
11	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.25	-9.7	297	115	7.7
12	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-3.22	-12.5	389	120	7.0
13	William Contreras	-3.08	-12.5	406	123	6.5
14	Trent Grisham	-2.81	-8.9	316	109	9.4
15	Taylor Ward	-2.80	-9.7	346	123	7.1
16	Julio Rodríguez	-2.78	-10.3	369	123	6.9
17	Miguel Vargas	-2.65	-10.3	388	129	8.3
18	Drake Baldwin	-2.64	-8.8	334	111	8.8
19	Zach McKinstry	-2.51	-6.5	260	102	8.6
20	Mike Trout	-2.46	-6.9	283	113	9.8
21	Marcus Semien	-2.42	-7.5	309	113	8.7
22	Jo Adell	-2.34	-8.6	368	127	7.9
23	Dansby Swanson	-2.34	-6.8	292	112	8.0
24	Austin Riley	-2.26	-7.0	308	130	8.2
25	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-2.10	-8.6	412	131	7.0
26	Matt McLain	-2.06	-5.2	251	102	9.0
27	Brett Baty	-1.99	-5.1	254	110	7.7
28	JJ Bleday	-1.95	-5.5	281	104	10.2
29	Lawrence Butler	-1.95	-5.1	260	111	8.4
30	Jacob Young	-1.82	-5.5	300	111	7.7
31	Jarren Duran	-1.69	-5.7	336	120	8.1
32	Bryce Harper	-1.69	-6.1	358	131	8.8
33	Ildemaro Vargas	-1.39	-4.8	349	111	7.3
34	Nico Hoerner	-1.36	-6.4	474	132	6.6
35	Nasim Nuñez	-1.36	-4.0	298	119	8.0
36	Bo Bichette	-1.34	-5.7	427	132	7.6
37	Jeff McNeil	-1.33	-4.5	336	112	7.5
38	Gunnar Henderson	-1.32	-5.3	397	133	8.2
39	Troy Johnston	-1.24	-3.6	287	104	7.7
40	Josh Bell	-1.21	-4.5	368	127	8.2
41	Iván Herrera	-1.12	-4.4	392	134	6.1
42	Gavin Sheets	-1.10	-3.0	270	113	7.7
43	Mike Yastrzemski	-1.05	-2.2	213	101	10.4
44	Joc Pederson	-0.98	-2.5	252	108	9.2
45	Geraldo Perdomo	-0.92	-3.7	406	131	7.2
46	Wilyer Abreu	-0.89	-3.5	388	129	7.6
47	Pete Alonso	-0.88	-3.2	369	130	8.1
48	Kyle Karros	-0.85	-2.2	263	107	8.5
49	Josh Naylor	-0.85	-3.5	418	125	6.9
50	Jake Burger	-0.84	-2.7	325	125	8.7
51	Evan Carter	-0.82	-2.0	241	104	10.2
52	Jac Caglianone	-0.81	-2.6	318	119	8.4
53	Kyle Tucker	-0.76	-2.7	355	124	7.3
54	Jakob Marsee	-0.69	-2.2	322	124	8.7
55	Colt Keith	-0.65	-1.8	274	114	9.8
56	Yordan Alvarez	-0.63	-2.4	377	130	8.2
57	Matt Olson	-0.52	-1.9	375	135	7.3
58	Dillon Dingler	-0.47	-1.7	355	120	8.9
59	Isaac Collins	-0.19	-0.6	286	114	8.4
60	Cody Bellinger	-0.11	-0.4	325	107	9.5
61	Alec Burleson	-0.09	-0.4	420	132	8.1
62	Dominic Canzone	-0.07	-0.2	280	110	7.9
63	Junior Caminero	-0.07	-0.3	403	132	6.0
64	Kazuma Okamoto	-0.03	-0.1	320	124	7.4
65	Ozzie Albies	-0.03	-0.1	444	135	6.5
66	Masyn Winn	-0.03	-0.1	330	117	7.9
67	Brayan Rocchio	0.03	0.1	383	129	7.2
68	Kevin McGonigle	0.03	0.1	418	130	6.6
69	Freddie Freeman	0.05	0.2	409	128	7.0
70	Chase DeLauter	0.06	0.2	351	110	8.0
71	Mauricio Dubón	0.06	0.2	412	128	6.6
72	Michael Massey	0.09	0.2	284	102	9.3
73	Brice Turang	0.09	0.3	347	123	7.6
74	Daulton Varsho	0.11	0.4	318	111	7.7
75	Nolan Schanuel	0.12	0.4	338	106	6.7
76	Michael Busch	0.21	0.8	368	131	8.2
77	Jonathan Aranda	0.21	0.8	366	128	7.5
78	Bryan Reynolds	0.21	0.8	360	135	6.9
79	Daylen Lile	0.23	0.9	408	133	7.1
80	Sam Antonacci	0.25	0.8	318	113	7.9
81	Steven Kwan	0.29	1.1	391	123	7.2
82	George Springer	0.31	0.9	304	101	8.0
83	Alex Bregman	0.40	1.7	428	132	8.3
84	Trea Turner	0.48	2.0	407	128	7.6
85	Trevor Larnach	0.54	1.5	278	102	7.8
86	Spencer Torkelson	0.54	1.6	292	127	9.1
87	Nathan Church	0.55	1.5	281	102	8.0
88	Xavier Edwards	0.61	2.6	425	133	6.4
89	Tyler Soderstrom	0.69	2.1	302	106	8.5
90	Max Muncy	0.69	2.0	287	116	7.8
91	Bryson Stott	0.73	2.7	366	127	6.8
92	Gabriel Moreno	0.82	2.6	320	104	7.7
93	Cole Young	0.84	3.4	401	131	7.7
94	Christian Walker	0.87	3.0	348	126	8.8
95	Andy Pages	0.87	3.4	387	124	7.8
96	Luis García Jr.	0.91	3.2	355	122	8.5
97	Kody Clemens	0.92	3.0	330	115	8.1
98	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.2
99	Jose Altuve	0.97	3.1	322	104	7.6
100	Michael Harris II	1.02	4.0	391	127	7.4
101	Leody Taveras	1.17	3.2	275	107	8.9
102	Ben Rice	1.20	4.1	339	125	9.1
103	Rafael Devers	1.32	4.8	363	132	7.8
104	Corbin Carroll	1.34	4.9	368	130	7.2
105	Isaac Paredes	1.42	5.6	393	126	6.6
106	Andrew Benintendi	1.43	3.8	266	106	9.2
107	Cedric Mullins	1.44	4.4	305	108	8.3
108	Jung Hoo Lee	1.48	6.2	415	122	7.7
109	Garrett Mitchell	1.51	3.7	244	102	10.4
110	Sal Stewart	1.54	6.1	393	132	7.7
111	Jackson Chourio	1.55	4.7	303	100	7.4
112	Yandy Díaz	1.73	7.4	427	127	7.4
113	Hunter Goodman	1.74	4.8	274	111	8.1
114	Travis Bazzana	1.75	4.9	282	100	8.9
115	Andrés Giménez	1.77	5.7	323	118	8.7
116	Brandon Marsh	1.84	6.2	339	124	8.0
117	Taylor Walls	1.84	4.5	244	100	7.9
118	Otto Lopez	1.88	8.5	450	131	6.8
119	Ernie Clement	1.98	8.9	452	132	6.5
120	Carson Benge	2.07	7.6	367	127	8.3
121	Shohei Ohtani	2.07	7.2	350	123	7.6
122	Caleb Durbin	2.12	7.9	370	123	7.7
123	Kyle Schwarber	2.13	6.3	295	120	8.2
124	Luis Arraez	2.15	10.7	499	127	6.0
125	Javier Sanoja	2.18	6.9	317	105	8.6
126	Willy Adames	2.19	7.1	322	119	8.2
127	Luke Keaschall	2.32	8.2	355	122	7.2
128	Willi Castro	2.40	7.1	295	109	7.4
129	Jake McCarthy	2.40	8.8	364	114	7.4
130	Elly De La Cruz	2.42	7.7	319	115	8.4
131	José Caballero	2.43	6.4	265	101	8.7
132	Jordan Walker	2.44	9.1	372	130	7.2
133	Ian Happ	2.49	7.5	302	121	7.9
134	TJ Rumfield	2.55	9.7	382	129	7.3
135	Justin Crawford	2.60	7.7	297	116	8.4
136	Jake Bauers	2.63	7.4	282	110	8.8
137	Zach Neto	2.70	9.3	343	129	7.7
138	Willson Contreras	2.85	8.4	296	113	9.3
139	Randy Arozarena	3.20	11.2	350	127	8.1
140	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.33	9.6	289	117	8.4
141	Brooks Lee	3.42	13.3	389	124	7.8
142	Brandon Lowe	3.50	11.7	334	121	8.2
143	Ezequiel Duran	3.62	11.7	323	121	8.8
144	Nolan Arenado	3.69	12.4	336	122	7.5
145	Nick Gonzales	3.74	14.5	387	125	6.7
146	Colson Montgomery	3.95	11.6	294	119	9.1
147	Liam Hicks	4.02	14.9	370	118	6.8
148	Seiya Suzuki	4.04	12.6	312	115	7.1
149	Chandler Simpson	4.26	18.6	438	121	6.3
150	Chase Meidroth	4.50	16.4	364	127	7.2
151	CJ Abrams	5.25	18.9	360	123	7.6
152	Ceddanne Rafaela	5.94	23.7	399	127	7.7
153	Tristan Peters	6.67	19.6	293	113	9.3
154	Pete Crow-Armstrong	7.60	27.4	360	132	8.4

Columns can be re-sorted for exploration, but a re-sorted table is always labeled "Sorted view" and is never presented as an alternative official ranking. The Rank column always shows the stored, frozen official rank — click it to return to that order.