Contact Luck Leaderboard

Contact Luck compares what a batted ball was expected to be worth with the run value of what actually happened. Summed across a player's eligible batted balls and normalized to Runs / 100, +3.0 means a hitter's realized outcomes were worth roughly three more runs per 100 eligible batted balls than expected. The interval shows the uncertainty around that estimate — Contact Luck describes what happened, retrospectively; it is not a projection of future performance.

Data through Aug. 23, 2026 141 qualified hitters

Riley Greene

107.6 mph · 33°

Actual: Out

Expected RV +1.29

Contact Luck -1.55

Unfavorable

Francisco Lindor

60.4 mph · 26°

Actual: Single

Expected RV -0.25

Contact Luck +0.71

Favorable

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2026 Contact Luck Leaderboard

Ranked players only (141 of 635 players qualify) — see methodology for the qualification rule.

Most favorable realized luck Least favorable outcomes relative to expectation

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong	8.26	28.6	347	128	9.0
2	Ceddanne Rafaela	6.09	23.5	386	123	7.5
3	CJ Abrams	5.63	19.6	347	118	7.3
4	Tristan Peters	5.07	14.2	280	109	9.7
5	Chase Meidroth	4.14	14.5	351	123	7.0
6	Liam Hicks	4.13	14.9	360	115	7.6
7	Chandler Simpson	4.09	17.4	425	117	6.8
8	Nolan Arenado	3.76	12.1	323	118	7.2
9	Nick Gonzales	3.75	14.1	375	121	7.0
10	Brandon Lowe	3.68	12.2	331	118	8.2
11	Seiya Suzuki	3.64	10.9	298	111	7.5
12	Colson Montgomery	3.45	10.0	289	116	9.2
13	Randy Arozarena	3.42	11.7	341	123	8.4
14	Ezequiel Duran	3.40	10.6	313	117	8.9
15	Brooks Lee	3.29	12.3	373	120	8.1
16	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.24	9.1	281	113	9.4
17	Jake McCarthy	3.11	10.8	346	109	7.5
18	Willson Contreras	3.08	8.8	285	110	9.6
19	Justin Crawford	3.07	8.8	286	112	8.7
20	Zach Neto	2.95	9.8	332	125	7.5
21	Willi Castro	2.68	7.5	279	104	7.6
22	Luke Keaschall	2.62	8.9	340	118	7.0
23	TJ Rumfield	2.51	9.3	370	124	7.4
24	Ian Happ	2.38	6.9	291	117	8.2
25	Ernie Clement	2.38	10.5	440	128	6.4
26	Jake Bauers	2.37	6.6	279	108	8.5
27	Luis Arraez	2.37	11.5	483	123	6.1
28	Javier Sanoja	2.34	7.1	302	101	8.6
29	Shohei Ohtani	2.33	7.9	338	119	7.6
30	Caleb Durbin	2.26	8.1	359	119	7.6
31	Jordan Walker	2.22	8.1	363	126	7.3
32	Kyle Schwarber	2.21	6.3	284	116	8.7
33	Willy Adames	2.19	7.1	322	119	8.5
34	Brandon Marsh	2.15	7.2	333	121	8.5
35	Otto Lopez	2.05	8.9	436	127	6.6
36	Andrés Giménez	2.00	6.3	314	115	8.7
37	Yandy Díaz	1.90	7.9	413	123	7.8
38	Elly De La Cruz	1.84	5.6	304	111	8.6
39	Carson Benge	1.82	6.5	356	123	8.7
40	Jung Hoo Lee	1.81	7.3	405	119	7.5
41	Corbin Carroll	1.76	6.3	357	125	6.9
42	Isaac Paredes	1.58	6.0	382	122	6.9
43	Hunter Goodman	1.50	3.9	261	107	7.8
44	Leody Taveras	1.39	3.7	263	103	9.6
45	Sal Stewart	1.37	5.2	380	128	7.7
46	Andrew Benintendi	1.36	3.5	259	104	8.9
47	Cedric Mullins	1.30	3.9	297	104	8.4
48	Jose Altuve	1.14	3.5	308	100	8.6
49	Rafael Devers	1.09	3.8	347	127	8.3
50	Kody Clemens	1.08	3.4	319	111	8.1
51	Gabriel Moreno	0.95	2.9	307	100	7.4
52	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.4
53	Max Muncy	0.92	2.6	278	113	8.6
54	Christian Walker	0.90	3.0	336	122	7.8
55	Trea Turner	0.88	3.5	395	124	7.5
56	Andy Pages	0.87	3.4	387	124	7.9
57	Michael Harris II	0.86	3.3	379	123	6.9
58	Cole Young	0.86	3.3	390	128	7.5
59	Kevin McGonigle	0.84	3.4	405	126	7.0
60	Ben Rice	0.76	2.5	327	121	9.1
61	Alex Bregman	0.71	2.9	413	128	8.2
62	Bryan Reynolds	0.71	2.4	346	131	7.1
63	Tyler Soderstrom	0.69	2.1	302	106	8.4
64	Cody Bellinger	0.68	2.1	309	103	10.3
65	Bryson Stott	0.55	2.0	356	123	7.6
66	Xavier Edwards	0.38	1.6	410	129	6.1
67	Luis García Jr.	0.28	1.0	343	119	8.2
68	Ozzie Albies	0.25	1.1	431	131	6.8
69	Sam Antonacci	0.21	0.6	305	109	7.3
70	Brice Turang	0.20	0.7	336	120	7.3
71	Spencer Torkelson	0.19	0.5	286	124	8.9
72	Jonathan Aranda	0.18	0.6	354	124	7.4
73	Jake Burger	0.16	0.5	317	121	8.7
74	Daulton Varsho	0.12	0.4	305	107	7.6
75	Nolan Schanuel	0.12	0.4	338	106	6.9
76	Kazuma Okamoto	0.11	0.3	309	120	7.9
77	Freddie Freeman	0.10	0.4	395	124	7.8
78	Brayan Rocchio	0.05	0.2	372	125	7.2
79	Dominic Canzone	0.02	0.0	272	107	7.8
80	Masyn Winn	-0.03	-0.1	330	117	7.8
81	Michael Busch	-0.05	-0.2	360	127	8.4
82	Alec Burleson	-0.06	-0.2	406	128	7.3
83	Mauricio Dubón	-0.18	-0.7	396	124	6.8
84	Chase DeLauter	-0.20	-0.7	348	108	8.1
85	Dillon Dingler	-0.24	-0.8	344	116	9.2
86	Daylen Lile	-0.24	-1.0	393	128	7.2
87	Matt Olson	-0.31	-1.1	362	131	7.1
88	Jakob Marsee	-0.41	-1.3	315	121	8.9
89	Junior Caminero	-0.45	-1.7	390	128	5.9
90	Colt Keith	-0.50	-1.3	271	112	10.3
91	Steven Kwan	-0.51	-1.9	374	119	7.0
92	Josh Naylor	-0.52	-2.1	408	122	7.2
93	Kyle Tucker	-0.61	-2.1	345	121	7.3
94	JJ Bleday	-0.71	-1.9	268	100	9.8
95	Isaac Collins	-0.83	-2.3	276	111	8.6
96	Kyle Karros	-0.85	-2.2	263	107	8.4
97	Yordan Alvarez	-0.91	-3.4	368	126	7.6
98	Gavin Sheets	-0.93	-2.5	265	111	8.4
99	Wilyer Abreu	-0.94	-3.6	378	125	7.4
100	Evan Carter	-0.96	-2.3	234	101	10.2
101	Nasim Nuñez	-0.98	-2.8	287	115	8.3
102	Bo Bichette	-1.03	-4.3	419	129	7.4
103	Nico Hoerner	-1.03	-4.7	459	128	6.6
104	Ildemaro Vargas	-1.05	-3.5	334	106	7.8
105	Pete Alonso	-1.06	-3.8	359	127	7.4
106	Josh Bell	-1.08	-3.8	357	124	7.8
107	Gunnar Henderson	-1.14	-4.4	386	130	8.2
108	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.19	-4.7	391	126	7.4
109	Joc Pederson	-1.20	-3.0	246	105	9.9
110	Iván Herrera	-1.27	-4.9	383	130	6.2
111	Jeff McNeil	-1.34	-4.3	321	108	7.9
112	Troy Johnston	-1.45	-4.0	278	100	7.5
113	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.54	-6.1	399	127	7.3
114	Jarren Duran	-1.70	-5.5	326	116	8.8
115	Bryce Harper	-1.92	-6.6	345	127	8.8
116	Jacob Young	-1.99	-5.7	285	106	7.7
117	Brett Baty	-2.08	-5.1	247	106	7.4
118	Taylor Ward	-2.08	-7.0	337	119	7.0
119	Austin Riley	-2.11	-6.4	304	128	8.2
120	Mike Trout	-2.23	-6.1	272	109	10.4
121	Jo Adell	-2.31	-8.3	357	123	7.4
122	Dansby Swanson	-2.34	-6.8	292	112	7.9
123	Trent Grisham	-2.40	-7.4	306	105	9.6
124	Julio Rodríguez	-2.73	-9.8	358	119	6.7
125	Marcus Semien	-2.74	-8.2	298	109	8.9
126	Lawrence Butler	-2.88	-7.2	250	107	8.4
127	Miguel Vargas	-3.12	-11.7	376	125	8.3
128	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-3.19	-11.9	375	116	7.2
129	JJ Wetherholt	-3.26	-12.9	394	125	7.5
130	Ketel Marte	-3.39	-13.3	393	117	6.4
131	Cam Smith	-3.42	-10.4	305	118	8.8
132	Jackson Merrill	-3.49	-12.7	362	124	8.3
133	William Contreras	-3.53	-13.8	391	119	6.4
134	Drake Baldwin	-3.58	-11.5	322	107	8.7
135	Alec Bohm	-3.65	-14.3	392	123	7.0
136	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.83	-11.0	288	111	7.9
137	Manny Machado	-3.97	-14.3	359	126	7.6
138	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	10.0
139	Brandon Nimmo	-4.25	-15.5	364	124	9.6
140	Xander Bogaerts	-4.37	-14.6	334	120	7.1
141	Salvador Perez	-5.90	-21.9	371	122	6.8

Rank	Player	Runs / 100	Total runs	Eligible BBE	Scored Games	Interval width
1	Salvador Perez	-5.90	-21.9	371	122	6.8
2	Xander Bogaerts	-4.37	-14.6	334	120	7.1
3	Brandon Nimmo	-4.25	-15.5	364	124	9.6
4	James Wood	-3.98	-11.4	286	111	10.0
5	Manny Machado	-3.97	-14.3	359	126	7.6
6	Ezequiel Tovar	-3.83	-11.0	288	111	7.9
7	Alec Bohm	-3.65	-14.3	392	123	7.0
8	Drake Baldwin	-3.58	-11.5	322	107	8.7
9	William Contreras	-3.53	-13.8	391	119	6.4
10	Jackson Merrill	-3.49	-12.7	362	124	8.3
11	Cam Smith	-3.42	-10.4	305	118	8.8
12	Ketel Marte	-3.39	-13.3	393	117	6.4
13	JJ Wetherholt	-3.26	-12.9	394	125	7.5
14	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	-3.19	-11.9	375	116	7.2
15	Miguel Vargas	-3.12	-11.7	376	125	8.3
16	Lawrence Butler	-2.88	-7.2	250	107	8.4
17	Marcus Semien	-2.74	-8.2	298	109	8.9
18	Julio Rodríguez	-2.73	-9.8	358	119	6.7
19	Trent Grisham	-2.40	-7.4	306	105	9.6
20	Dansby Swanson	-2.34	-6.8	292	112	7.9
21	Jo Adell	-2.31	-8.3	357	123	7.4
22	Mike Trout	-2.23	-6.1	272	109	10.4
23	Austin Riley	-2.11	-6.4	304	128	8.2
24	Taylor Ward	-2.08	-7.0	337	119	7.0
25	Brett Baty	-2.08	-5.1	247	106	7.4
26	Jacob Young	-1.99	-5.7	285	106	7.7
27	Bryce Harper	-1.92	-6.6	345	127	8.8
28	Jarren Duran	-1.70	-5.5	326	116	8.8
29	Fernando Tatis Jr.	-1.54	-6.1	399	127	7.3
30	Troy Johnston	-1.45	-4.0	278	100	7.5
31	Jeff McNeil	-1.34	-4.3	321	108	7.9
32	Iván Herrera	-1.27	-4.9	383	130	6.2
33	Joc Pederson	-1.20	-3.0	246	105	9.9
34	Geraldo Perdomo	-1.19	-4.7	391	126	7.4
35	Gunnar Henderson	-1.14	-4.4	386	130	8.2
36	Josh Bell	-1.08	-3.8	357	124	7.8
37	Pete Alonso	-1.06	-3.8	359	127	7.4
38	Ildemaro Vargas	-1.05	-3.5	334	106	7.8
39	Nico Hoerner	-1.03	-4.7	459	128	6.6
40	Bo Bichette	-1.03	-4.3	419	129	7.4
41	Nasim Nuñez	-0.98	-2.8	287	115	8.3
42	Evan Carter	-0.96	-2.3	234	101	10.2
43	Wilyer Abreu	-0.94	-3.6	378	125	7.4
44	Gavin Sheets	-0.93	-2.5	265	111	8.4
45	Yordan Alvarez	-0.91	-3.4	368	126	7.6
46	Kyle Karros	-0.85	-2.2	263	107	8.4
47	Isaac Collins	-0.83	-2.3	276	111	8.6
48	JJ Bleday	-0.71	-1.9	268	100	9.8
49	Kyle Tucker	-0.61	-2.1	345	121	7.3
50	Josh Naylor	-0.52	-2.1	408	122	7.2
51	Steven Kwan	-0.51	-1.9	374	119	7.0
52	Colt Keith	-0.50	-1.3	271	112	10.3
53	Junior Caminero	-0.45	-1.7	390	128	5.9
54	Jakob Marsee	-0.41	-1.3	315	121	8.9
55	Matt Olson	-0.31	-1.1	362	131	7.1
56	Daylen Lile	-0.24	-1.0	393	128	7.2
57	Dillon Dingler	-0.24	-0.8	344	116	9.2
58	Chase DeLauter	-0.20	-0.7	348	108	8.1
59	Mauricio Dubón	-0.18	-0.7	396	124	6.8
60	Alec Burleson	-0.06	-0.2	406	128	7.3
61	Michael Busch	-0.05	-0.2	360	127	8.4
62	Masyn Winn	-0.03	-0.1	330	117	7.8
63	Dominic Canzone	0.02	0.0	272	107	7.8
64	Brayan Rocchio	0.05	0.2	372	125	7.2
65	Freddie Freeman	0.10	0.4	395	124	7.8
66	Kazuma Okamoto	0.11	0.3	309	120	7.9
67	Nolan Schanuel	0.12	0.4	338	106	6.9
68	Daulton Varsho	0.12	0.4	305	107	7.6
69	Jake Burger	0.16	0.5	317	121	8.7
70	Jonathan Aranda	0.18	0.6	354	124	7.4
71	Spencer Torkelson	0.19	0.5	286	124	8.9
72	Brice Turang	0.20	0.7	336	120	7.3
73	Sam Antonacci	0.21	0.6	305	109	7.3
74	Ozzie Albies	0.25	1.1	431	131	6.8
75	Luis García Jr.	0.28	1.0	343	119	8.2
76	Xavier Edwards	0.38	1.6	410	129	6.1
77	Bryson Stott	0.55	2.0	356	123	7.6
78	Cody Bellinger	0.68	2.1	309	103	10.3
79	Tyler Soderstrom	0.69	2.1	302	106	8.4
80	Bryan Reynolds	0.71	2.4	346	131	7.1
81	Alex Bregman	0.71	2.9	413	128	8.2
82	Ben Rice	0.76	2.5	327	121	9.1
83	Kevin McGonigle	0.84	3.4	405	126	7.0
84	Cole Young	0.86	3.3	390	128	7.5
85	Michael Harris II	0.86	3.3	379	123	6.9
86	Andy Pages	0.87	3.4	387	124	7.9
87	Trea Turner	0.88	3.5	395	124	7.5
88	Christian Walker	0.90	3.0	336	122	7.8
89	Max Muncy	0.92	2.6	278	113	8.6
90	Riley Greene	0.94	2.7	291	115	9.4
91	Gabriel Moreno	0.95	2.9	307	100	7.4
92	Kody Clemens	1.08	3.4	319	111	8.1
93	Rafael Devers	1.09	3.8	347	127	8.3
94	Jose Altuve	1.14	3.5	308	100	8.6
95	Cedric Mullins	1.30	3.9	297	104	8.4
96	Andrew Benintendi	1.36	3.5	259	104	8.9
97	Sal Stewart	1.37	5.2	380	128	7.7
98	Leody Taveras	1.39	3.7	263	103	9.6
99	Hunter Goodman	1.50	3.9	261	107	7.8
100	Isaac Paredes	1.58	6.0	382	122	6.9
101	Corbin Carroll	1.76	6.3	357	125	6.9
102	Jung Hoo Lee	1.81	7.3	405	119	7.5
103	Carson Benge	1.82	6.5	356	123	8.7
104	Elly De La Cruz	1.84	5.6	304	111	8.6
105	Yandy Díaz	1.90	7.9	413	123	7.8
106	Andrés Giménez	2.00	6.3	314	115	8.7
107	Otto Lopez	2.05	8.9	436	127	6.6
108	Brandon Marsh	2.15	7.2	333	121	8.5
109	Willy Adames	2.19	7.1	322	119	8.5
110	Kyle Schwarber	2.21	6.3	284	116	8.7
111	Jordan Walker	2.22	8.1	363	126	7.3
112	Caleb Durbin	2.26	8.1	359	119	7.6
113	Shohei Ohtani	2.33	7.9	338	119	7.6
114	Javier Sanoja	2.34	7.1	302	101	8.6
115	Luis Arraez	2.37	11.5	483	123	6.1
116	Jake Bauers	2.37	6.6	279	108	8.5
117	Ernie Clement	2.38	10.5	440	128	6.4
118	Ian Happ	2.38	6.9	291	117	8.2
119	TJ Rumfield	2.51	9.3	370	124	7.4
120	Luke Keaschall	2.62	8.9	340	118	7.0
121	Willi Castro	2.68	7.5	279	104	7.6
122	Zach Neto	2.95	9.8	332	125	7.5
123	Justin Crawford	3.07	8.8	286	112	8.7
124	Willson Contreras	3.08	8.8	285	110	9.6
125	Jake McCarthy	3.11	10.8	346	109	7.5
126	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.24	9.1	281	113	9.4
127	Brooks Lee	3.29	12.3	373	120	8.1
128	Ezequiel Duran	3.40	10.6	313	117	8.9
129	Randy Arozarena	3.42	11.7	341	123	8.4
130	Colson Montgomery	3.45	10.0	289	116	9.2
131	Seiya Suzuki	3.64	10.9	298	111	7.5
132	Brandon Lowe	3.68	12.2	331	118	8.2
133	Nick Gonzales	3.75	14.1	375	121	7.0
134	Nolan Arenado	3.76	12.1	323	118	7.2
135	Chandler Simpson	4.09	17.4	425	117	6.8
136	Liam Hicks	4.13	14.9	360	115	7.6
137	Chase Meidroth	4.14	14.5	351	123	7.0
138	Tristan Peters	5.07	14.2	280	109	9.7
139	CJ Abrams	5.63	19.6	347	118	7.3
140	Ceddanne Rafaela	6.09	23.5	386	123	7.5
141	Pete Crow-Armstrong	8.26	28.6	347	128	9.0

Columns can be re-sorted for exploration, but a re-sorted table is always labeled "Sorted view" and is never presented as an alternative official ranking. The Rank column always shows the stored, frozen official rank — click it to return to that order.