Jarren Duran
Runs / 100 compares the run value of this player's realized eligible batted-ball outcomes with what those batted balls were expected to produce, retrospectively — here, less favorable than expected. How Contact Luck works →
Contact Luck is a retrospective description of realized outcomes, not a measure of stable batting talent and not a projection of future performance. The 95% interval reflects sampling uncertainty in the estimate itself — it does not indicate whether the underlying effect is "real" or "significant," and overlapping zero does not mean the observation is unreliable or should be discounted.
Component decomposition
Runs per 100 eligible batted balls attributed to each stage of the play.
| Component | Runs / 100 |
|---|---|
| Contact | +1.77 |
| Defensive execution | -1.67 |
| Advancement | -0.32 |
| Unexplained residual | -1.82 |
Component status
| Component | Status |
|---|---|
| Contact | Calibrated |
| Outfield defense | Provisional |
| Infield defense | Limited subgroup evidence |
| Advancement | Limited subgroup evidence |
View technical reason codes
| Component | Model status | Reason codes |
|---|---|---|
| Contact | calibrated, unavailable | contact_result_unavailable_reached_on_error |
| Outfield defense | not_calibrated, provisional, unavailable | base_training_ineligible, contact_only_fallback, estimated_hang_time_input, infield_credited_hit_location, missing_geometry, near_wall_provisional, not_outfield_air_ball_bb_type, position_spray_sector_proxy |
| Infield defense | calibrated_with_limited_subgroup_evidence, unavailable | bunt_excluded, excluded_strategic_play, infield_limited_subgroup_evidence, missing_required_contact_data, not_ground_ball_bb_type, outfield_credited_hit_location |
| Advancement | calibrated_with_limited_subgroup_evidence, unavailable | advancement_rare_class_limited, not_advancement_safe_event, not_outfield_air_ball_bb_type, trivial_no_advancement_opportunity |
Season-to-date trend
Contact Luck Runs / 100 across every stored historical snapshot for this player. Points are plotted at their true snapshot dates — a gap between points (such as a missing snapshot day) is never filled in or estimated.